spyforecast.comHelp centreGlossaryOpen the Vs Sector & Market page β†’

πŸ†š Vs Sector & Market β€” the ticker against its sector and the market

Other pages compare a ticker with its own past. This page compares it with its sector and the whole market on the same day. That is the difference between "NVDA's options are cheap" and "the whole market's options are cheap, and NVDA is just one of them". It then says which kind of structure the option book supports today.

πŸ’‘ The three layers Every reading is sorted into one layer:
market β€” most stocks are at the same extreme: a market regime, the ticker is a passenger.
sector β€” the sector is unusual but the market is not: a group story.
NAME β€” neither the sector nor the market is unusual: this reading belongs to this ticker. These are the most interesting.
⚠ No side, on purpose This page never says "bullish" or "bearish". It decides structure (sell premium, buy premium, a calendar…) and warns about size, because the measured tests found no reliable direction in these readings.

New words? Glossary. The data is the whole market's panel, rebuilt every night.

Top tilesPremium & tapeWhat the book has drawnWhat that argues forThree layersAgainst the indexRoutine

The top tiles

TileHow to read it
PremiumRICH / FAIR / CHEAP: what options cost against how much the stock really moves. A ⚠ means one unusual day decides it (raw and trimmed ratios disagree).
TapePINNED (dealer hedging calms moves) / MIXED / AMPLIFYING (hedging adds to moves).
SideAlways NONE, by design.
Where the market isThe share of core stocks in long gamma, pricing rich premium, and in backwardation β€” the context for everything else.

Premium and Tape: the conditions

Each card lists its conditions. The verdict is a count of agreeing conditions, not a weighted score, so you can check each one.

VerdictRule
Premium RICHNet +2 or more conditions say expensive (IV30 Γ· realised β‰₯ 1.2 is the main one).
Premium CHEAPNet βˆ’2 or fewer (ratio ≀ 0.85).
Premium FAIRIn between.
Tape PINNEDNet +2 or more say dealer hedging dampens.
Tape AMPLIFYINGNet βˆ’1 or fewer.
Tape MIXEDIn between.
πŸŽ“ Pro tipWatch the tape condition "this regime has held N sessions". A regime only 1–3 days old is usually chop β€” the book crosses back and forth. An established regime (weeks) is a real statement.

What the book has drawn

A picture of the corridor: put wall, Ξ³ flip, max pain, the price and the call wall on one line, with the zone between the walls shaded. The table gives each level's price, its distance from the price, and its distance in Οƒ of the chain's own 30-day move.

Distance in ΟƒMeaning
under 1ΟƒThe market's own pricing expects this level to be tested within a month.
1Οƒ – 2ΟƒReachable, but less likely.
beyond 2Οƒ"Scenery": unlikely to matter within a month.

Οƒ puts every ticker on one scale: 8 % is nothing for a stock moving Β±20 % a month and a lot for one moving Β±3 %.

What that argues for

A lookup from the premium Γ— tape combination. Build and price any of them on Trade by Expiry.

PremiumTapeStructureWhy
richpinnedIron condor between the wallsOptions expensive and moves dampened: the classic premium-selling setup.
richamplifying / mixedDefined-risk credit spreadPremium is rich because moves are amplified; sell it only with defined risk.
cheap / fairpinnedCalendar / diagonal at the pinThe front decays into the pin while the cheap back month keeps optionality.
cheap / fairpinned / mixedDebit vertical to the wallCheap debit; the wall is the natural short strike.
cheapamplifyingLong straddle / stranglePaying for movement is cheap and moves get amplified.
cheap / fairamplifyingβ›” Naked / ratio short: AVOIDNot paid enough, and moves are amplified.
fairmixedNo tradeNo edge to act on.

What would change it lists the triggers β€” for example "the tape stops behaving like this at the Ξ³ flip, X % below the price".

Where the ticker sits: the three layers

ColumnHow to read it
reading Β· valueThe metric and today's value.
own %Percentile against this ticker's own recent history.
market %Percentile against all core stocks today.
sector medianThe sector's typical value, and how unusual that is for the sector.
market medianThe market's typical value, and how unusual that is for the market.
5d Ξ”Change over 5 sessions.
this is a…NAME / sector / market / β€” (see the layers box above).
PercentileColourMeaning
90 – 100boldvery high
80 – 89greenhigh
21 – 79greyordinary
11 – 20redlow
0 – 10boldvery low

Filter by family (gamma / flow / vol / levels) and by show (only name / sector / market stories). Click a row to chart the ticker against its sector median and the market median.

πŸŽ“ Pro tipSet show = name stories only. Those are the readings where this ticker differs from everything around it β€” the only place a ticker-specific idea can come from. A "very high IV" that is a market story is a reason to sell premium across many names, not to single this one out.

The ticker against the universe index

The index is the equal-weight return of the fixed core list of stocks.

ItemHow to read it
window tableThe ticker's % change, the index's % change, and the relative difference in points over several windows.
betaHow much the ticker moved per 1 % of the index. 1.0 = like the market; 1.5 = 50 % more; 0.5 = half. The last 20 sessions are shown too β€” amber if it shifted by 0.35 or more.
correlationHow closely daily moves follow the index.
relative strengthTicker Γ· index (100 at the start), its percentile, and its 5-day / 20-day change. Rising = outperforming.
CorrelationMeaning
above 0.7Mostly a market passenger.
0.4 – 0.7Partly market, partly its own story.
under 0.4Mostly moves on its own news.

A routine that works

  1. Where the market is: what is the overall regime?
  2. Premium and Tape for this ticker β€” and the ⚠ fragile flag.
  3. What that argues for, and the Οƒ distances to the walls.
  4. Layers table, filtered to name stories: what is truly specific to this ticker?
  5. Beta and correlation: will a market move drag this position?
  6. Build the suggested structure on Trade by Expiry, sized with the market regime in mind.