💼 Trade by Expiry — does that trade actually pay?
You choose the expiry. The page builds the usual structures on that expiry — spreads, condors, butterflies, straddles — prices every one on the last session's real bid and ask, and tests it against this ticker's own history. It is the page that answers: has this trade made money, not just how often it won?
💡 The one idea you need first: POP is not the whole story
A credit spread may show POP 70 % — a 70 % chance to finish in profit at expiry.
But on the way, the price touches your short strike about twice as often as it finishes beyond it. If you close a trade when it is touched, you live with the second number.
So the page shows P(touch) next to POP, and EV (expected value): what the trade actually earned on average in the past, not only how often it won.
But on the way, the price touches your short strike about twice as often as it finishes beyond it. If you close a trade when it is touched, you live with the second number.
So the page shows P(touch) next to POP, and EV (expected value): what the trade actually earned on average in the past, not only how often it won.
New words? Glossary. The top strip works as on every ticker page. The page is always on the last usable session — there is no "as of" date box.
30 secondsControlsTop tilesExpiriesThe menuP(touch)The four EVsPicked tradeTrade windowWhat it can't tell youRoutine
In 30 seconds
- Leave the controls as they are. The page picks the expiry with the most open interest between 20 and 60 days.
- Look at the menu sorted by EV measured. A good row has a positive EV measured that is at least about twice its ±.
- Check P(touch): under 40 % is comfortable for a credit trade.
- Click the row. Read the payoff chart and the distribution chart side by side.
The controls
| Control | What it does | Suggested |
|---|---|---|
| Stance | Which direction the menu's fit is ranked for: bull / bear / neutral, or no stance (rank on EV only). It is your own view — nothing on the page measures direction. | no stance, unless you have your own view |
| Move | Bigger or smaller move than usual, or no view. Also yours to set. | no view |
| Anchors | Where the short strikes go. walls = at the call/put wall when it is within 2.5σ, otherwise at ±Nσ. ±Nσ only = ignore the walls. | walls; use σ when the walls are far or thin |
| ±σ | How far the short strike sits from the price when no wall is used, in this expiry's own 1σ move. 0.5σ = close (more premium, more risk); 2σ = far (less premium). | 1σ |
| Wings | How far beyond the short strike the bought strike sits, in σ. Wider = more credit but a bigger maximum loss. | 0.5σ |
| Lots | How many contracts. Every dollar figure is for this many lots. | 1 while you study |
| Sort | fit · EV measured · EV at realised vol · EV at the forecast · POP · P(touch): safest first · risk per lot. | try "EV measured" |
The five tiles at the top
| Tile | How to read it |
|---|---|
| Stance | BULL / BEAR / NEUTRAL / NONE — whatever you set above. NONE = the fit is ranked on premium and regime only. |
| Move | BIGGER / SMALLER / NO VIEW — also what you set. |
| Premium | IV30 ÷ realised vol. 1.20× or more = RICH (selling has the edge) · 0.85× or less = CHEAP (buying has the edge) · in between = FAIR. |
| Regime | LONG γ = calmer price, good for range trades · SHORT γ = moves get amplified. |
| Realised vol 20d | How much the ticker really moved over 20 days (yearly %), next to IV30. |
Expiries — pick the one you would really trade
One row per expiry. Click a row to rebuild the whole menu on that expiry.
| Column | How to read it |
|---|---|
| DTE / sessions | Calendar days / trading days left. |
| ATM IV | This expiry's own implied volatility (each expiry has its own). |
| call OI / put OI | Contracts held. More usually means tighter spreads and easier fills. |
| max pain | This expiry's max-pain price. |
| 1σ | The normal move to this expiry, in $ and %. About two times in three the price ends inside ±1σ. |
| quoted K | Strikes with a real two-sided quote. Under 3 (amber) = a thin expiry; avoid it. |
| event | Whether the next report falls before this expiry — see the warning below. |
⚠ A report inside the expiry changes everythingAn expiry that spans a report carries a big "jump premium" in its IV that disappears the morning after. Sellers get paid for that risk; buyers pay for it. None of POP, P(touch) or the EVs include the jump, because most past windows had no report in them. The "event" column is the page's estimate read from the options — check the company's own date.
The menu
Every structure on the chosen expiry. Above the table: how many are priced on real quotes, whether a report is inside, and which anchors were used.
| Column | How to read it |
|---|---|
| fit | 0–100 match with today's read. 70 + = good match · 40–69 acceptable · under 40 (dimmed) = conditions are against it. Fit is not a chance of profit. |
| legs | −245C +250C = sell (−) the 245 call, buy (+) the 250 call. |
| net | credit $ = you receive · debit $ = you pay, for all your lots. quoted = real bid/ask (good) · part quoted = some legs estimated · model mid = no real quotes, so the true price is worse. |
| max loss / max gain | The worst and best result at expiry, in $. ∞ = unlimited. |
| POP | Chance of finishing in profit at expiry. |
| P(touch) | Chance the price touches a short strike before expiry. The small "seen" number = how often it really happened on this ticker. |
| EV impl · rv · fc · measured | Expected profit in $, four ways — see below. |
| win | Share of past windows that finished with a profit. |
P(touch) — how to read it
| P(touch) | Meaning |
|---|---|
| under 40 % | The short strike is rarely reached. Comfortable. |
| 40 – 60 % | Reached about half the time. Expect to manage the trade. |
| over 60 % | Usually reached. If you close on a touch, this trade loses often. |
| 100 % already through | A short strike is already past the price — not a safe credit trade. |
| — | No short strike (a long straddle): nothing can be touched against you. |
🎓 Pro tipCompare the model's P(touch) with the "seen" number. If the model says 35 % but this ticker really touched 55 %, it moves more than its IV suggests — a warning for sellers and an opportunity for buyers.
The four EVs (expected value)
EV is the average profit or loss if you took the trade many times. Positive = earned on average, negative = lost.
| EV | Based on | How to read it |
|---|---|---|
| EV impl | The market's own implied volatility | A sanity check, not an edge. On a fair market it comes out slightly negative (about the cost of trading). A big positive number usually means a bad or stale quote. |
| EV rv | How much the ticker really moved (20 days) | The "premium is rich" idea in dollars. When options are rich, sellers show a positive number here. |
| EV fc | A forecast of future movement | Not available on the site — the column says why. |
| EV measured | The ticker's real history — every past window of the same length | The most honest number. The "±$" is its uncertainty. Trust it only when the EV is bigger than about 2 × the ±. |
| Example | Reading |
|---|---|
| EV measured $45 ±$15 | 45 is 3 × 15: the past history clearly favoured this trade. |
| EV measured $20 ±$30 | The ± is bigger than the EV: cannot be told from zero. |
| EV measured −$60 ±$20 | This structure clearly lost money on this ticker in the past. |
| +stock | This row holds shares (covered call, collar), so its EV is mostly the stock's own rise — do not compare it with option-only rows. |
⚠ The best row is flatteredIf you sort by EV and take the top of 13 structures, it looks better than it is, just because it is the best of many tries. The note under the menu shows the spread from worst to best. The top row has to beat its ± by more than the usual 2×.
🎓 Pro tipHover an EV measured cell to see it with the ticker's drift removed. If a bullish trade's EV mostly disappears without the drift, you are just betting it keeps going up as it did before. That is fine — but know it.
The picked structure
Click a row and five tiles and two charts appear below the menu.
| Tile / chart | How to read it |
|---|---|
| Net cash | What you receive (+) or pay (−). |
| At risk | Max loss. "defined by the wings" = limited; "undefined on one tail" = unlimited risk on one side. |
| Costs | What you lose to the bid/ask getting in, and for the round trip. On narrow spreads this can eat a big part of the credit. |
| POP vs touch | e.g. 70 % / 55 %: chance of profit and chance of a touch, side by side. |
| EV measured | The historical EV with its ±. |
| Payoff chart | Profit/loss at expiry for each price, with today's price and the chain levels marked. |
| Distribution chart | Where this ticker's price really ended after the same number of days in the past, drawn from today's price. Tall bars = common outcomes. |
🎓 Pro tipHold the payoff and the distribution side by side in your head. A good credit trade has its profit zone where most of the tall bars are and its loss zone where the bars are short.
The trade window
Clicking a row also opens the trade window: the payoff through time (not only at expiry), a price × time profit grid, every leg's Greeks and quote, the same structure on other expiries and strikes, and the legs' own price history. Esc closes it. 📌 Follow writes the structure down with today's price so you can see how it would have done (kept in this browser).
What this page cannot tell you
- It cannot tell you which way the price goes. Stance and Move are yours; the page ranks structures for the view you give it.
- It does not know the future report. POP, P(touch) and EV use windows that mostly had none.
- Fills are at the price shown, and the "costs" tile says what crossing the spread takes off. Thin strikes will be worse.
A routine that works
- Pick the expiry you would really trade — check quoted K and the event column.
- Sort by EV measured. Keep rows where EV is at least 2 × its ±.
- Check P(touch) against "seen".
- Read the payoff against the distribution.
- Open the trade window and look at "Is there a better trade?" before you place anything.
Prefer to start from the name of a strategy? Strategy. Want everything enumerated? Combo. Want the implied move as two spreads? Expected-Move Spreads.