📅 Earnings & Macro — the calendar and what it costs
Three tabs: the Week ahead (macro dates and company reports on one calendar), Earnings (every stock's next report, the move the options price for it, and what the stock really did on its last eight) and Macro (the economic backdrop read against its own history).
The Week ahead and Macro tabs are open to everyone; the full Earnings board is open too.
Week ahead
"The next two weeks": macro releases, the Fed's meetings and company reports on one calendar, day by day. Each macro event has a colour for its importance; each day lists the companies reporting (the biggest first) with the move the options price. Click a company for its card, or a day to filter the Earnings tab to it.
Earnings
| Filter | What it does |
|---|---|
| Window | This week · 2 weeks · 30 days · 60 days · All dated · Just reported (the last 7 days). |
| Size | Any size · ≥ $10B · ≥ $50B · ≥ $200B market cap. |
| Sector · search · ☆ mine | A sector, a ticker or name, or only your starred stocks (kept in this browser). |
The header strip counts the stocks in the window, the median typical move the options price, how many ask for 1.3× or more of the usual, how many 0.75× or less, and how many have a date the options disagree with.
The columns
| Column | How to read it |
|---|---|
| Reports | The date. list = from a report-date list exported on the day shown at the top; est = not announced by anyone, read out of the stock's own options (the sessions where short-dated IV collapsed in the past, and the rhythm they keep). ⚠ = the options point to a different window than the listed date: either the date or the options are wrong. Neither source knows if it is before the open or after the close, so the reaction session is the report date or the next. |
| Mkt cap · Price · IV rank | Size, last close, and IV against its own last year. |
| Options price | The typical move the options charge for the report (the mean absolute move, ≈ 0.8 of the one-standard-deviation move — the same as a straddle tells you). A ~ = a rough figure from monthly expiries only. |
| Last 8, typical | The mean absolute move of the stock on its last eight reports. |
| Priced ÷ typical | The first divided by the second. Above 1.3: the options ask for more than the stock has usually delivered. Below 0.75: for less. |
| Beat the price | Of the last eight reports, how many moved by more than the options price today. |
| IV drop after | The median fall of short-dated IV over the last eight reports — the "IV crush" a seller collects. |
| Priced ÷ typical | Meaning |
|---|---|
| 1.3 × + | Options ask for more than the stock has usually delivered — selling the event has had room. |
| 0.75 – 1.3 × | About what the stock has delivered. |
| 0.75 × − | Options ask for less — buying the event has been cheap. |
A stock's card
Click a row. The card shows the window the options point to, the size of the move on each of its last eight reports, and the implied-volatility drop after each. Sessions where at least a tenth of the market collapsed together are left out — that is a market event (the April 2025 tariff pause), not a report.
Macro
The option market right now
Where the five markets that carry the macro story stand tonight — price, IV rank, which side dealers are on. Click one for its card.
Coming up
The agencies' own release calendar, the Fed's meetings and the expirations — and beside each date, what the options market did on the same kind of day over the last three years.
The backdrop
A list of economic series (inflation, payrolls, rates, credit…), each against its own last three years. A level says nothing until you know where it sits in its own past; the bar is the percentile. Click a row for the five-year line. Inflation and the Fed's balance sheet are ranked on their year-on-year change and payrolls on the monthly change. ⏳ marks a series whose last release is older than expected.
The yield curve
Seven maturities of the Treasury curve: today, a month ago and a year ago.
What the options did on macro days
The average absolute move on the days a release or an FOMC decision came out, against every other day (× = the ratio). Magnitudes only: it counts how far a market moved, never which way.
How the numbers are made
- The priced move. Each expiry's IV prices the days up to it. Where two neighbouring expiries bracket a report, the second charges for a stretch that contains it, the first does not; the variance beyond what the stretches around it charge per day is the report's. It is an estimate made from end-of-day quotes: a one-point difference between two IVs moves it a lot.
- Macro data are public series from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED); the release calendar is the agencies' own; the Fed's meeting dates are from federalreserve.gov (the 2027 dates are tentative until confirmed).
A routine that works
- Week ahead: which macro days sit inside your trade?
- Earnings: set the window to your expiry, a size floor, and sort by Priced ÷ typical.
- Open a stock's card: how did it move on its last eight, and how much did IV drop?
- Check the ⚠ flag and the company's own date.
- Take the stock to Volatility (report dates) and Trade by Expiry (the structure and its P(touch)).